The apple bites back

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The last New York City mayoral race was a disaster for progressives. This time might not be all that different.

The 2021 primary was a cavalcade of setbacks for the left, beginning with the collapse of several left-aligned candidates’ campaigns. Comptroller Scott Stringer, a one-time frontrunner and the first choice of many unions and liberal groups, saw his candidacy crumble following sexual harassment accusations. Dianne Morales, a non-profit executive who ran a campaign largely consisting of Instagram-ready slogans, briefly gained the backing of many leftist groups and online activists. But her campaign then imploded in even more spectacular fashion: a tangled mess of alleged union-busting, sexual misconduct coverup, racial bias, and amorphous “harm.”

By the final month of the primary campaign, only Eric Adams, the moderate Brooklyn borough president, and Kathryn Garcia, a technocratic former sanitation commissioner, led any public polling. But rather than coalescing around Garcia, a mainstream liberal to Adams’ left, a progressive cavalry arrived for Maya Wiley, the slightly-to-the-left MSNBC commentator and former city official who trailed the frontrunners. In the race’s closing days, Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, the city’s highest-ranking progressive, even urged voters to choose both Wiley and Adams over Garcia.

The actual mechanics of the election then became an embarrassing indictment of urban Democratic governance: It took the city, which was using a ranked-choice-voting system for the first time, a full two weeks to count ballots and declare a winner. Adams ultimately prevailed by just 7,000 votes, his dominant performance among non-white and working class voters the final humiliation for the left.

His actual tenure, of course, has been a chaotic mess. The first sitting NYC mayor to be indicted, Adams was already a distinct underdog going into this year’s mayoral race. His implicit alliance with the Trump administration this winter made him so radioactive in the Democratic primary, set for late June, that he dropped out to run an almost-certainly-doomed independent campaign.

Adams may be out of the running for the Democratic nomination, but the landscape that led to his 2021 victory hasn’t changed much. Over the past few years, progressives’ struggles with non-white, working, and middle-class people in major cities like New York has become a defining feature of Democratic primaries across the country. And the problem might be spreading to general elections: Trump made deep inroads in the city’s working class enclaves, powering him to the best performance for a Republican nominee in the city since 1988.

That dynamic is the backdrop for a brewing battle between mayoral candidate Andrew Cuomo, the moderate, scandal-tarred former governor who is seeking to reassemble Adams’ coalition, and Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist who’s emerged as his chief opponent. With just over two months to go before primary day and Cuomo comfortably leading in the polls, it looks like the end result may echo 2021: a tough-on-crime centrist prevailing by running up the score in the most diverse, working-class neighborhoods.

The exact attributes that have endeared Mamdani, a 33-year-old state assemblyman, to so many committed progressive voters and activists are ones that may limit his potential for wider appeal: A registered socialist, vocal critic of Israel, and outspoken backer of causes like defunding the police, Mamdani has all the characteristics of other lefties who’ve caught fire online only to fizzle with actual voters, especially working class Black and Latinos voters. A recent Data for Progress poll underscored his challenge: In the final round of ranked-choice voting, Cuomo beat Mamdani by 44 points among Latino voters, 70 points among non-college voters, 82 points among Black voters, and 86 points in the Bronx. The similarities to Adams’ 2021 coalition are obvious, except that Cuomo leads by far more than Adams ever did.

The poll pointed to an emerging nightmare scenario for some Cuomo opponents: Mamdani proving popular and strong enough to box out other more moderate Democratic candidates in ranked-choice rounds, only to lose widely to Cuomo in the final one-on-one matchup.

Some argue that’s exactly what the former governor’s team wants. “There’s a reason you see Team Cuomo hyping up Mamdani,” said one strategist working on a rival campaign, who called him a “perfect foil” for the former governor. “They want a race where it’s ‘DSA socialist versus Andrew Cuomo,’ but that’s not the race they’re going to get.” Others see a path for Mamdani, but say he needs to move quickly. “If I was Zohran and I had $8 million I would be on television right fucking now,” said another operative involved in the race. “He needs to define himself before they define him.”

For now, it is undeniable that Mamdani’s money and momentum have eclipsed that of far more experienced candidates, several of whom have been planning mayoral campaigns for years. That fact isn’t lost on those seeking to move strategically to block a Cuomo victory. “Mamdani has brought a level of enthusiasm to the race that’s surprising to everyone from voters to longtime politicians,” said one left-aligned elected official, who plans to back Mamdani in the coming weeks. “I expect the energy he brings and builds to be an enormous boost to progressive electoral efforts,” they added.

Mamdani has also proven to be a charismatic campaigner, and he brings strengths that other lefty candidates of his ilk have lacked. His advocacy for taxi drivers and his connections in Muslim and South Asian communities, for example, could prove useful (it’s quite common now to see Brooklyn and Queens bodegas bearing his campaign poster). He may also benefit from a contrast with his opponent in visibility and access: Cuomo himself has kept a remarkably isolated schedule, seemingly betting he can ride on name recognition and money without much risk-taking. Still, an outright victory — against a political titan like Cuomo, no less — would defy recent history. And that’s part of what makes the coming primary intriguing.

Publicly, the Cuomo opposition movement expresses optimism about the months ahead, arguing most New Yorkers are still tuned out. “If you look at those polls, the other candidates have no name recognition. People have no idea who these folks are,” said Lauren Hitt, a spokeswoman for New Yorkers for Better Leadership, an anti-Cuomo super PAC.

One variable: Two sources expressed confidence that the Working Families Party, a progressive party with a guaranteed ballot line in the general election, will run its own candidate in the general election if Cuomo wins the primary. That could create an unusual four-way race come fall: A Republican nominee, Cuomo, Adams as an independent, and a progressive. If Mamdani finishes second in the primary, he’d be the most likely bet for the WFP line. If that’s the case, the June primary may be just a warm-up.

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