Safe bets

The presidential election is a toss-up. Control of the House of Representatives is a toss-up. But the crop of soon-to-be new members of Congress is already coming into focus.

Even as 435 districts are technically up for grabs, in vast swaths of the country, Election Day has, for all intents and purposes, already come and gone. The share of House districts that are truly competitive has declined substantially in recent decades: The Cook Political Report, which assigns a “Partisan Voting Index” to all 435 districts based on how much more Democratic or Republican it votes than the nation as a whole, estimates that the number of districts with a rating between D+5 and R+5 has been cut in half since 1998. The hollowing out of competitive seats has been reflected in recent results: 84% of House elections were decided by double digits in 2022.

The lack of widespread competition has led to heightened attention on the roughly two dozen districts that will decide control of the chamber. But it’s also made primary elections increasingly decisive, and meant that, long before the polls close, we already have a good sense of the freshman class set to arrive in Congress — and what their victories tell us about the political landscape. Here are 14 almost-certain new members to know.

Lateefah Simon (D) California’s 12th

A member of the Bay Area Rapid Transit board, Simon is set to win the Oakland-based district currently represented by Rep. Barbara Lee, who ran unsuccessfully for Senate. A former recipient of a MacArthur Genius Grant who was given a coveted speaking slot at the Democratic convention this summer, she would be the first legally blind member of Congress and the first member of Congress to have been elected to a transit board.

Michael Baumgartner (R) Washington’s 5th

A former state senator, Baumgartner is likely to succeed retiring Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers in a district that covers Washington’s entire eastern border. He would become one of the most reform-minded Republicans in Congress on cannabis policy: As the party’s Senate nominee in 2012, he backed the state’s pioneering legalization of recreational marijuana.

Emily Randall (D) Washington’s 6th

A current state senator, Randall is set to succeed Rep. Derek Kilmer, who is vacating a district centered on Washington’s northwest Olympic peninsula. Her contentious primary campaign was a prime illustration of the cryptocurrency and Israel debates that roiled Democratic primaries this year. She was one of the top recipients of crypto spending and fired her campaign manager this summer after the staffer was revealed to have liked pro-Hamas and anti-Israel content. She would be the openly gay Latina in Congress.

John McGuire (R) Virginia’s 5th

A state senator and Navy veteran, McGuire is likely to win a central Virginia district currently represented by House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good. He narrowly defeated Good in the Republican primary, powered by a retaliatory Donald Trump endorsement after Good backed Ron DeSantis’s presidential campaign. McGuire represents a shift towards Trumpian conservatism — he’s backed medical marijuana, for example — and is part of an overall trend of tumult for the district: It’s seen four different congressmen in seven years.

Maxine Dexter (D) Oregon’s 3rd

A former state senator, Dexter is set to win a Portland-based district, which is being vacated by longtime Rep. Earl Blumenauer. A pulmonologist by training, Dexter’s primary victory was perhaps the model of success for pro-Israel Democratic forces: After polling put her in third place just weeks before the primary, Dexter became one of the top recipients of outside spending by AIPAC and its affiliates and ultimately defeated the one-time frontrunner Susheela Jayapal, sister of Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal.

Julie Fedorchak (R) North Dakota At-Large

A current member of the state’s Public Service Commission, Fedorchak is near-certain to win the state’s lone House seat, which is being vacated as current Rep. Kelly Armstrong runs for governor. At a time when many anti-abortion groups are dismayed at Republicans’ retreat on the issue, Fedorchak has become a favorite: She’s helped lead passage of anti-abortion laws in the state, which has some of the most restrictive laws in the country. Interestingly, her near-certain election could mean 4/5 states with at-large congressmembers are represented by women.

Yassamin Ansari (D) Arizona’s 3rd

A former Phoenix city councilor, Ansari is nearly guaranteed to succeed Rep. Ruben Gallego, who is running for Senate, in a Phoenix-based district. She has carved out a niche on climate change, attending the 2021 and 2022 UN conferences. She defeated former state senator Raquel Raquel Terán, a favorite of national progressives, in the Democratic primary by just 39 votes after receiving heavy support from pro-crypto and pro-Israel groups. She would be just the second Iranian-American in Congress.

Pat Harrigan (R) North Carolina’s 10th

An Army veteran and firearms manufacturer, Harrigan is set to win a newly redrawn district in western North Carolina. The district’s closest corollary is currently represented by Patrick McHenry, who became a national figure as the bowtie-clad House Speaker pro tempore after the ouster of Kevin McCarthy. McHenry was known as an institutionalist who supported certification of Joe Biden’s 2020 victory and worked closely on bipartisan spending bills. But Harrigan is likely to be closer to the MAGA line: One of his earliest endorsements was from scandal-plagued North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.

Maggie Goodlander (D) New Hampshire’s 2nd

A former top official in the Biden Justice Department, Goodlander is likely to succeed retiring Rep. Ann McLane Kuster in a district that covers western New Hampshire. A late entrant into the race with thin connection to the district — she grew up in the state but has spent her career in D.C. — Goodlander bested Kuster’s handpicked successor in part by emphasizing a powerful, timely personal story: she gave birth to a stillborn child in a hotel due to post-Dobbs restrictions. At a time when Democrats are grappling with how much of the Biden administration’s populist economic policy to continue, Goodlander’s experience in antitrust policy could make her influential. She married to current Biden National Security Advisor (and likely Harris administration member) Jake Sullivan.

Sarah McBride (D) Delaware At-Large

A current state senator and longtime LGBTQ rights activist, McBride is considered a lock to win the state’s lone House district, which became open after Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester opted to run for Senate. She has deep roots in institutional Democratic politics: She’s a longtime personal friend of the Biden family and, in 2016, became the first transgender person to address a national convention. She will be the first transgender member of Congress — a hefty platform at a time of an ongoing backlash to transgender rights among many voters.

Abe Hamadeh (R) Arizona’s 8th

A veteran and former county prosecutor, Hamadeh is likely to win a district outside Phoenix, which opened up after Rep. Debbie Lesko’s surprise retirement. He first rocketed to MAGA-world prominence in 2021 after he launched a campaign for state Attorney General largely premised on backing Donald Trump’s false claims of election fraud. He lost that race by a razor-thin margin of 280, the closest margin of any statewide race in 2022. He then narrowly bested fellow MAGA enthusiast Blake Masters in a bitterly contested primary for the open congressional seat this year. A son of Syrian and Lebanese immigrants, he has Muslim heritage but proclaims himself religiously unaffiliated — both making him a notable standout for a Republican in Congress.

Shomari Figures (D) Alabama’s 2nd

A former chief of staff to Attorney General Merrick Garland, Figures is set to win a newly reconfigured district in southern Alabama. After a lengthy court fight that found the state had discriminated against Black voters and violated the Voting Rights Act, Alabama was forced to draw a second Black majority district. Figures would likely be an influential Democratic voice on crypto policy: He is one of the top recipients of the industry’s spending this cycle and lobbied the DNC to adopt a pro-crypto platform this summer.

Tim Moore (R) North Carolina’s 14th

The current speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives, Moore is all but certain to win a newly drawn seat in southwestern North Carolina. He’s a good example of the declining power of scandal in modern politics, having survived a litany of ethics investigations, including an FBI probe, as well as instances of infidelity. Moore played an instrumental role in the 2023 Republican gerrymander of the state’s map, with many alleging he “drew himself” a district in which to run. He would be one of a handful of former state legislative leaders in Congress.

Julie Johnson  (D) Texas’s 32nd

Currently a state representative, Johnson is set to succeed Rep. Colin Allred, who is running for Senate, in a Dallas-based district. In 2021, she was one of the Texas Democrats who fled the state in an attempt to block a Republican-backed bill to change voting procedures. She would be the first openly gay member of Congress from below the Mason-Dixon line.  

_{What’d you think of this week’s newsletter? Hit us up at [email protected].}