Optimism outshines the obvious

Eight years ago, the Republican National Convention was low on figures like Mike Lawler.

The New York congressman represents the kind of district that has become part of Democrats’ bread and butter in the Trump era: an affluent, suburban seat north of New York City, which Joe Biden won by over 10 points. Lawler is also the exact kind of Republican who was conspicuously absent the last time Trump was nominated as an out-of-office challenger.

So it was striking to find the congressman quite literally in the front row of the Fiserv Forum, smiling for pictures just feet from the rostrum. His presence, and sunny disposition, was part of a clear message from Milwaukee: The 2024 Republican Party is more united than any time in two decades.

After four days in Brew City, Republicans regard their convention as a clear success, projecting to the country an image of multi-racial populism and, after a programming revamp in the wake of the attempted assassination of their nominee, downplaying their more extreme elements. Inside the hall, the vibes were exceedingly good: For the first time since 2004’s renomination of George W. Bush, both the true-believing delegates and establishment operatives were wholly united behind their nominee and confident in a November victory.

Like many on the floor, Lawler explained his party’s cohesion by pointing to the other side, telling me, “there’s unity in understanding that Joe Biden’s policies have failed.” Perhaps more key to understanding it: As he leaves Milwaukee the first person since FDR to be nominated at three straight conventions, Trump is polling better than any other point in his political career. Lawler even predicted the GOP ticket could win his district, an assessment that jibes with both parties’ reported internal polling. If true, it would almost certainly indicate a decisive national victory for the former president.

Republicans are now comfortably positioned in a political landscape without recent precedent. In 2016, the primary runner-up, Sen. Ted Cruz, pointedly refused to endorse Trump from the lectern. On Tuesday, the 2024 runner-up, Nikki Haley, did not even garner the predicted boos as she strode out to pitch the man she once called “totally unhinged.” Eight years ago, almost all of the Republican nominees in marquee Senate races skipped the convention as they sought distance from Trump at the top of the ticket. On Wednesday, Sam Brown, the party’s Senate nominee in Nevada, a state Democrats have now won four presidential cycles in a row, declared in primetime that he would “proudly stand along Donald Trump” if elected.

And Thursday night brought the two men in charge of Republicans’ congressional campaign committees, Sen. Steve Daines and Rep. Richard Hudson, to the stage — a long journey from 2016, when neither even showed up in Cleveland.

Ironically, the focus of the party’s enthusiasm proved the least adept at stoking it. Trump’s speech, which, at 92 minutes, clocked in as the longest acceptance speech in history, was less a soaring high note and more a petering outro. The nominee began by somberly coupling a description of the assassination attempt with calls for national unity, declaring he was “running to be president for all of America, not half of America.”

The subdued tone initially worked well enough, but even as the language turned to policy, the energy never changed. As the Democratic Party is consumed by questions of their candidate’s vigor and acuity, Trump looked very much his 78 years as he turned his audience from rapt to restless — to the point some delegates walked out before he finished. At one point, one attendee on the floor turned to me and mimed shooting herself. An unusual reaction to an address from any nominee, but particularly one who just survived an assassination attempt.

Still, the optimism within the party was undeniable. Pennsylvania Rep. Guy Reschenthaler predicted that Democrats would “see the ‘blue wall’ crumble.” California Rep. Michelle Steel, one of 17 Republicans representing seats Biden carried, said Trump was “looking very good” in her district. Iowa Rep. Ashley Hinson told me she believes it’s now more likely that the House GOP picks up seats than loses its majority. And Lawler, who’s regarded as one of the shrewder members of the freshman class, shrugged off election analysts who view his race as a tossup: Asked whether his opponent, former Rep. Mondaire Jones, has any chance to prevail, he gave a definitive “no.”

That buoyancy, alongside Democrats’ deepening internal crisis, underscored the degree to which 2024 so far appears wildly different than 2020 or 2016. Some of the distinctions were already obvious — and not exactly advantageous for the party. A Trump presidency is no longer an abstraction, nor is the disregard for basic democratic principles he’s displayed. But everything leading up to Trump’s address showcased all of the GOP’s new assets: unambiguous unity. Far more professional management. A new fluency in the language of populism. Rappers, wrestlers, and reality stars diversifying the party image.

Trump’s speech showed the other side of that dynamic: He is not the candidate he was in his prior campaigns. As he has shown in his infrequent campaign stops, as well as the debate last month, he too has seen his public presentation change significantly over the past eight years — he is slower-moving, more subdued, and even more prone to directionless trains of thought than before. On Thursday night, his ad-libs included riffing on “the late great Hannibal Lecter,” referring to Nancy Pelosi as “crazy Nancy,” calling a Democratic senator a “total lightweight,” and claiming that Democrats “used COVID to cheat” in the 2020 election. After four days that have given Republicans reason for confidence, it was a reminder that their nominee remains their biggest liability — possibly more so than ever before.

It’s likely that the well-executed convention, and the energized, populist GOP it showcased, will break through for some voters — both parties expect Trump to get at least some polling bump over the next week. But its biggest effect may be how it shook a Democratic Party whose leaders, until extremely recently, publicly treated the prospect of a Donald Trump re-election as an absurdity. As several outlets reported, the unity projected by the RNC has been a key contributor to internal Democratic efforts to force Joe Biden from the party’s ticket.

If those efforts succeed, the contrast between the parties’ internal states will only grow in the short term. But after Trump’s winding, listless closer, many Democrats, after months of rising panic and weeks of despair, seemed to come away with their own energized conclusion: Sitting atop a strong party is a beatable candidate. 

_{What’d you think of this newsletter? Hit us up at [email protected].}