Not necessarily smooth sailing

Congressional leaders have their work cut out for them.

Donald Trump’s Cabinet is still months away from being finalized. But on the other side of Washington, key leadership roles are now set.

On Tuesday, Senate Democrats became the last of the four factions in Congress — both parties in each chamber — to elect their leadership for the next two years. None of the results has been surprising but the elected leadership slates will be crucial to the direction of Trump’s presidency. And together, they paint an important picture of how both parties are moving at the dawn of the second Trump era.

The next two years will be pivotal. Here’s a rundown of the major players and what they’re up against.

The Big Four 

Mike Johnson (R-LA) Speaker of the House

Johnson’s path to the Speakership bears remarkable similarity to the path of Trump’s first Speaker, Paul Ryan. Both got the job in deeply unusual circumstances — Ryan in October 2015 after the resignation of John Boehner, Johnson in October 2023 after the vacation of Kevin McCarthy. Neither was their party’s next-in-line, or had spent years learning the ropes of leadership. Ryan’s tenure is a cautionary tale: He consistently struggled to pass legislation, and even basic procedural measures, in 2017 and 2018.

While Johnson is both personally and ideologically closer to Trump than Ryan was, he will be facing an even more challenging landscape: In November, the GOP won the smallest House majority in decades, a mere 220-215 margin that leaves little room for error. It will be a far bigger test for a far less experienced Speaker than any we’ve seen in recent years. 

John Thune (R-SD) Senate Majority Leader

Trump’s first-term accomplishments owed much to the work of Mitch McConnell, who has now stepped down after a record 18 years atop the GOP conference. His replacement is John Thune, a longtime McConnell apprentice who will face big challenges in replicating his old boss’s successes.

The new GOP majority will give Thune some breathing room — with 53 seats, Republicans can afford to lose three votes — but his leadership will be put to the test almost immediately, as Trump aides are signaling quick movement on an ambitious agenda. Complicating his task: the GOP conference is far more conservative this time around.

Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) House Minority Leader

During Trump’s first term, the de facto opposition leader was Nancy Pelosi, whose experience and savvy proved critical to stymieing his ambitions. This time, House Democrats will be led by Hakeem Jeffries, a far greener figure who, even after spending years as a Pelosi protege, remains largely untested in the kinds of high-pressure moments the next few years will bring.

Jeffries will be the face of the Democratic Party in D.C. during Trump’s second term and is a good bet to become the country’s first Black Speaker after the 2026 midterms. But first, he’ll have to steer a caucus teeming with members trying to nudge the party’s post-election direction, including a number who want more collaboration with Trump this time around.

Chuck Schumer (D-NY) Senate Minority Leader

Come January, Schumer will be the only person to have led their party in Congress during the first Trump presidency, the Biden presidency, and the second Trump presidency. Key to his longevity is a more-is-more approach to his leadership team: 11 of 47 Democratic senators will hold official positions next year.

Schumer’s members may be easier to manage now: For the first time in modern history, the Democratic caucus will have no members from red states, lending it fewer seats but more ideological cohesion. Considered one of the more electorally savvy leaders in his party, Schumer’s chosen levels of cooperation with Trump could be an indicator of which way the political winds are blowing.

The Number Twos

Steve Scalise (R-LA) House Majority Leader

Scalise has a record of weathering challenges: He survived a 2017 terrorist attack that left him seriously injured and began chemotherapy last year after being diagnosed with multiple myeloma. He has also held steady in party leadership since 2014, even as House Republicans have cycled through four different leaders above him. As Majority Leader, he’ll be in charge of setting the House legislative calendar — and will face pressure from Trump and his allies to be as aggressive as possible in moving legislation.    

John Barrasso (R-WY) Senate Majority Whip

Like Thune, Barrasso is moving up a slot and will now be the Senate GOP’s second-in-command. He’s made a concerted effort to position himself as a leader of the growing faction of hardline conservative Senate Republicans: He’s largely abandoned his initial backing of Ukraine aid, for example, part of a broader pattern of opposing GOP leaders on big issues, like increasing the debt limit. That strategy worked — he won the whip job unopposed — but he will soon be responsible for sidelining his own preferences and shepherding leadership priorities through the chamber.

Katherine Clark (D-MA) House Minority Whip

Set to be the highest-ranking woman in elected government next year, Clark’s job of keeping her caucus united will be crucial in the extremely narrow House. With Trump nominating two House Republicans for Cabinet positions and Matt Gaetz resigning, the GOP majority will dwindle to just 217-215 for at least the first few months of 2025 — which could paralyze Trump’s agenda if Clark succeeds at holding Democrats in line. She’ll have some challenges, including Democrats now representing Trump-won districts and aging or ailing members (7/10 of the oldest House members next year are Democrats). 

Dick Durbin (D-IL) Senate Minority Whip

At 80, Durbin is the oldest member of either party’s leadership. He is also up for re-election in 2026 and is already facing pressure to retire, a factor that will weigh over his work this session. Like Schumer, he has held his position since 2016, but his job of keeping Democrats united against Trump’s agenda this time will be simpler with red state moderates like Joe Manchin and Heidi Heitkamp now gone. 

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The Supporting Players

Tom Emmer (R-MN) House Majority Whip

Emmer is unknown to the vast majority of Americans — until now, his most high-profile moment was when he became the third candidate to fail in the Speakership race last year. But Emmer’s role in the next Congress will be crucial: As whip, he will be in charge of corralling every member of Republicans’ razor-thin majority to attend votes and stick with the majority. How he fares will undoubtedly increase his profile one way or the other.

Tom Cotton (R-AR) Republican Conference Chair

Cotton is a new entrant into Republican leadership. While he has a Trump-like instinct for bravado, he is arguably the most old-school conservative in GOP leadership, especially on foreign policy issues like Ukraine, which could cause tension with the new administration. Cotton is particularly close to McConnell, whose dislike of Trump and near-certain retirement in 2026 makes him a wildcard in the next two years, and could be a key player in keeping him from breaking with the party.

Pete Aguilar (D-CA) House Democratic Caucus Chair

Rounding out House Democrats’ new generation, Aguilar will be a key player in developing Democratic messaging. His background could also make him influential: The only Latino in congressional leadership, he hails from a state that moved 10 points towards Trump this cycle. Both factors could give him sway as the party seeks to regain lost ground among non-white voters and in blue enclaves.

Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) Senate Democratic Caucus Chair

Klobuchar is also new to leadership, replacing retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow. She is on the younger end of congressional leadership and is considered likely to keep moving up the ladder in the future, especially if Durbin retires. Her record of electoral overperformance — she won re-election in November by 16 points, even as Harris carried her state by just 4% — will also give her a platform as Democrats plan recruitment and messaging over the next few years. 

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