No big deal

There was a segment on the second night of the 2016 Democratic National Convention that really summed up the moment the party was in at the time.

Following an address by Bill Clinton and a performance by Alicia Keys, the lights in Philadelphia’s Wells Fargo Center dimmed. Onto the screen came a picture of George Washington, then John Adams, then Thomas Jefferson. For over a minute, the video rotated through the faces of every president. One could have been forgiven for expecting a tribute to Oval Office leadership. Instead, once all 43 men were assembled, the composite image shattered — like, say, a glass ceiling. The pieces fell to the ground, revealing a grinning Hillary Clinton, as Keys’ “Girl on Fire” played.

Though comparatively brief in the grand scheme of the four-day event, it was part of the convention’s broader programming strategy around Clinton’s nomination: heavily emphasizing, in sometimes awkward ways, her gender and potential to become the first woman president.

The underscoring of Clinton’s identity made some sense at the time: For the first time in American history, half the country was represented by one of the two major party nominees. On the other hand, it was a genuine break from the way previous conventions handled boundary-breaking moments, like Geraldine Ferraro becoming the first woman on a major party ticket or Barack Obama making history as the first Black nominee. The 2016 tone was informed by a variety of factors, including the particular cultural milieu of the time — few in the party now would seek to replicate the convention’s celebrity-studded acapella rendition of “Fight Song” — and the ongoing process of deciding its post-Obama identity.

Now, the Democratic Party is on the brink of nominating only the second major party ticket ever to be led by a woman, a biracial daughter of immigrants whose election would break even more barriers than Clinton’s would have. If Vice President Harris’ presidential bid is successful, it would make an already supremely consequential election a historic one, reordering American politics for generations. But few in the party are thinking about it the same way as 2016.

“It goes without saying,” said Rep. Lois Frankel, who chairs the House Democratic Women’s Caucus. “She doesn’t really have to emphasize that.” Frankel was one of several Democratic congresswomen who took the stage at the 2016 DNC, flanking then-Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, who few at the time expected to ever wield the Speaker’s gavel again.That time capsule emphasizes a broader change in the landscape since 2016: Pelosi was elected to a second stint as House Speaker, powered by a wave of Democratic women flipping Republican-held seats in the 2018 midterms.

According to the Center for the Advancement of Women in Politics, the number of women serving in the House of Representatives has jumped by nearly 10% (from 85 to 126), while the number of women in the Senate has risen from 20 to 25. The number of female governors has also doubled, and nearly six hundred more women now sit in state legislatures. And, of course, the country also elected the first woman vice president, creating an all-female backdrop for addresses to Congress in 2021 and 2022 for the first time. “We can stop talking about ‘Will America actually do this.’” said Christina Reynolds, vice president of communications at EMILY's List, a longtime ally of the vice president. “America has elected women all over the place.”

Harris also benefits from the stark change in the way voters think about abortion rights, which the vice president has made one of her signature issues since the Dobbs decision. “Abortion was not really a voting issue for Democrats in the same way that it is now,” Reynolds added. “Voters didn't fundamentally believe that Roe could be overturned until it was.”

That’s created a much different backdrop for Harris’s candidacy. “This is not 2016 for so many reasons,” said Taylor Salditch, the Executive Director of Supermajority, which was formed during the Trump presidency to engage female voters. She argues that Harris being a woman is an asset in a way it perhaps was not for Clinton, pointing to research done by the organization’s education arm that shows young women especially could be energized by candidates who are women of color. “Her identity is a hugely powerful and important part of this.”

Early polls have validated that assessment: A New York Times/Siena survey last week showed Harris gaining dramatically among some of the groups that were most vexing for the Biden campaign, improving by 29 points among 18-29 year olds, 33 points among Latino voters, and 22 points among non-white voters without a college degree.

Those gains point to another sea change. In July 2016, a Washington Post/ABC poll found the percentage of Democrats calling themselves “enthusiastic” about Clinton’s nomination mired in the 40s. An Ipsos/ABC News poll this week found 88% saying the same about Harris. That 40-point gap is downstream from a lot, including Democrats’ relief at Biden’s withdrawal and the fact that Harris did not have to endure a messy, divisive primary. But it reveals a major difference between the years: In short, the Harris campaign does not need to find a reason to motivate their voters like Clinton did. “The excitement is through the roof,” Frankel told me. “So much of what’s happening is organic.”

That could all add up to a convention later this month that takes a distinctly different tone than its predecessor eight years ago. Asked about the comparison, a source familiar with convention planning cautioned that programming has not been set — though they did confirm that some of the well-received aspects of the party’s virtual gathering in 2020, like on-the-ground shots of party activists in their home states, would be replicated this year.

Of course, the extremely abbreviated nature of Harris’s campaign makes comparisons to 2016 difficult. It’s impossible to know how she might have handled issues of identity in a more traditional general election. Even the truncated timeline has potential for unpredictability, as Trump’s ham handed efforts to weaponize her biracial family this week showed. The urgency around the vice president’s last-minute candidacy, and the fact that Democrats have now seen the reality of a Trump presidency, has no doubt crowded out many other considerations.

But for a party that was consumed by questions of identity and electability after Clinton’s loss, it’s a notable return to a position many in 2016 expected would be years away. They just might not talk about it. 

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