Brave new world

Donald Trump has been president for fewer than four months, but an unexpected political landscape is already coming into view.

For context, the duration of Trump’s presidency thus far (115 days) is barely longer than the time Kamala Harris spent as the Democratic presidential nominee last year (107). Harris’s time leading the party was regarded as a historically quick sprint. By contrast, Trump’s presidency already feels, just as it did the first time, far older than it actually is. Part of that disconnect is driven by the endless glut of news churning out of D.C., where the president has taken a chainsaw to decades of bipartisan consensus and institutional norms. But the sense of eons having already passed points to an emerging truth. Six months after Trump’s victory ushered in a new era of American politics, a fuller picture is coming into view — and it’s not what many expected in November.

It’s easy to forget the environment immediately after Election Day 2024. But the question after November was truly how big of a cultural and political reset Trump’s victory represented. Trump’s inroads with working class and non-white voters led many to call the cycle a “realignment.” The left’s nearly two-decade stretch of cultural dominance was upended, with major institutions like sports leagues, newspapers, tech companies, and movie studios abruptly changing their tone. The Democratic Party, more adrift than any time in decades, seemed to adjust as well: congressmembers pledged cooperation with the Elon Musk-led DOGE and broke a years-long taboo by coming out against transgender women in competitive women’s sports. To many, it indicated the emergence of a new political center of gravity.

Then Trump took office. And while we are only a few months in, it’s become clear that many of the more expansive conservative hopes for the second Trump presidency have, at the very least, stalled. Silver Bulletin’s average now places the president’s approval rating at -7. That’s far from anemic (Joe Biden ended his own presidency polling way worse) but it represents a decline of nearly 18 points since taking office, a drop unparalleled in the modern era for such a short period of time. More significantly, Trump, who rode a tide of rising conservative sentiment on policy questions, has already induced a mood shift among the electorate on several issues. Polls show the slide in support for Ukraine has quickly reversed and favorable views of foreign trade have skyrocketed to the highest point in the modern era.

The multiracial, working-class coalition many Republicans dreamed of also appears to be fracturing. Just months after the president made significant inroads among non-white voters without college degrees, a CNN poll found that just 27% of that group now approve of his job performance. A Cook Political Report analysis found that Trump’s approval rating has dropped the most among young voters and Latino voters, with double digit declines in both subgroups.

The president’s weakened political standing is perhaps contributing to the first seeds of intra-GOP discontent. Over the past week, a litany of Republicans have spoken out against his plans to accept a $400 million jet from the nation of Qatar, generating the most overt contradictions of Trump since he took office. Even more significantly, growing numbers in Congress are expressing dissatisfaction with the party’s reconciliation legislation, the “big beautiful bill” that is central to Trump’s second term legacy.

All of these events would appear to echo 2017, when Trump quickly became unpopular, congressional Republicans constantly bristled with the White House, and Democrats needed to do little more than wait for their comeback.

And yet, there are clear changes from the president’s first term, beginning with the media landscape. In May 2017, MSNBC was riding the energy and engagement of outraged liberals to new heights, beating both Fox News and CNN in primetime ratings for the first time since 2000. This time around, the network badly trails its competitors. The change underscores the wide divergence in media incentives this time around: Newspapers are no longer implicitly positioning themselves as Trump adversaries, and some are openly courting his favor. A similar dynamic is playing out politically. In contrast to the drumbeat of “resistance” during Trump’s first term, Democrats from D.C. to Michigan to California are leaping at chances for high-profile collaboration with the administration.

The overall cultural outlook is also plainly different this time around. While some universities and law firms have begun fighting back against the White House’s demands, the liberal dominance of civil society that was so crucial to the trajectory of Trump’s first term is nowhere to be found. The once-ubiquitous corporate LGBTQ Pride campaigns of the late 2010s are not returning. Neither are the diversity initiatives of the early 2020s. Recent protests against the administration pale in comparison to the millions who had already taken to the street by this time in 2017. There’s evidence that Christianity is on the rise in America, halting the steady secularization of the 2010s. No longer able to dismiss Trump as the voice of a minority, many Democratic leaders are jumping at the chance to appear in conservative and conservative-tinged media.

The sum total beckons to mind a common internet meme: Not x, not y, but a “secret third thing.” With the caveat that we remain only months in — over 90% of Trump’s term remains, if you’re counting — the president’s second stint in office is not shaping up to be a redux of 2017. He is far stronger, more popular, and backed by a much more united party. His opposition is more divided and more dispirited. And, whether through fear, self-reflection, or some combination, liberal and liberal-tinged civil institutions are not in a state of reflexive opposition.

At the same time, it’s become clear that the political landscape halfway through 2025 is not the same as late 2024. Conservative hopes for a popular, consensus-establishing presidency are fading. The Democratic Party, not long ago in strategic retreat, is beginning to get its bearings. In that way, the second Trump era resembles neither 2017 nor 2024. So far, it’s something else. 

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