Save the date

As 2024 winds down, when we naturally take stock and turn our attention to the year ahead, it’s worth remembering just how fast things can (and likely will) change.

For some perspective, here’s a snapshot of political news from the final days of 2023: The Colorado Supreme Court had disqualified Donald Trump from running for president; Security officials were warning of threats to the 2024 election’s integrity; Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley were ramping up attacks on each other and the frontrunner; and many news outlets were devoting coverage to voters’ unprecedented dissatisfaction with the prospect of a Trump-Biden rematch.

In 2024, all those stories ended up not mattering: Donald Trump’s primary challengers became bit players. He defeated Kamala Harris, not Joe Biden, and hit new levels of popularity in a secure election that Americans were largely satisfied with. Point being: a lot can change in a year, and predictions can be a fool’s game. So instead of predictions, let’s turn to something we can count on: The calendar. Here are key dates and benchmarks to watch in the coming year.   

January 3rd: 119th Congress is sworn in

The 119th Congress will be sworn in just after the new year, at which point Republicans will have control of both chambers for the first time in eight years. Demographically, it’s a mixed picture: There will be more non-white members than ever before, including an uptick in Black, Asian, and Latino members. But for the first time in 46 years, the number of women in the House and Senate will be lower than the previous Congress — another setback for advocates of women in politics after the second defeat of a female presidential nominee.

January 6th: Certification of 2024 presidential election results

Kamala Harris may not have been elected president, but in early January she will become a member of an even more exclusive club: Vice presidents who oversaw the certification of their own presidential campaign losses. This has sometimes put incumbent vice presidents in awkward positions — including Al Gore in 2000 and Richard Nixon in 1960. Both received plaudits for their graceful execution of their duties but, with Congress becoming ever more partisan and sensationalized these days, expect some taunting and heckling.

February: Global election results begin to trickle in

February brings elections in Belarus and Kosovo, small eastern European states where the outcomes will help begin to paint a broader picture of how the region is responding to Russian aggression after the Ukraine war. The most significant will be Germany’s elections on February 23rd, when Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s fate will be decided. Like most world leaders after COVID, he’s become deeply unpopular. Ukraine aid is a key issue in races.

April 1st: Special elections for open House seats in Florida

With Trump nominating Rep. Michael Waltz and Rep. Elise Stefanik to his Cabinet, and Rep. Matt Gaetz resigning in an ethically murky cloud, House Republicans’ historically slim majority will be razor thin for the first few months of 2025. They will get an opportunity to rectify that when Florida holds special elections for Waltz and Gaetz’s seats. While both districts are deep red, both parties will be watching for any sign of early organic resistance to Trump’s second term.

April: Likely government funding deadline

Congress technically still has to extend government funding before a December 20th deadline. Whatever it passes will likely fund the government until early spring, setting up a key test of the GOP Congress’s fiscal priorities come April.

Late June: Supreme Court decisions (and more)

The Supreme Court’s term generally ends in late June, and the justices often wait until the final days of the month to deliver the most high-profile rulings, which this year will include big decisions around immigration and transgender rights. This is also typically the time of the year that justices tend to announce their retirements. With conservative justices Sam Alito and Clarence Thomas both approaching 80 years old, they may face pressure from conservatives to give Trump the opportunity to replace them with younger figures.

July: Likely drop-date for raising the debt ceiling

The 2023 spending deal struck between President Biden and then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy suspended the debt ceiling until January 1st, 2025. That pause ends when the ball drops, bringing the debt ceiling exactly back to where it was in 2023. The U.S. will already have breached that ceiling but the Treasury Department is expected to employ its typical “extraordinary measures” to buy Congress time. Those maneuvers will likely only last until July at the latest. Congressional Republicans will then have to face a potentially tricky and internally divisive path to raising the borrowing limit.

August: Traditional summer recess

Congress typically holds a long recess in late summer, a tradition that has become a kind of canary-in-the-coal-mine in past congressional sessions, as many lawmakers head home to hold town halls. In 2009, fiery opposition to congressional Democrats’ health care reform efforts exploded at meetings back in their districts, imperiling the bill. Eight years later, the script was flipped: Republicans faced legions of voters furious over their attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act in 2017. Both times, the August recess was an early sign of the voter discontent that would come to fruition in the following year’s midterms.

October 20th: The last day for Canadian elections

Canada will elect a new government in 2025 — the only question is when. Being a parliamentary system, there is no official date for elections but Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is required to call an election on or before October 20th. The results could bring about a new era for one of the U.S.’s closest allies: Trudeau is more unpopular than ever, and current polling suggests the Conservative Party could win control, which would put its populist, Trump-friendly leader Pierre Poilievre in charge of a U.S. neighbor. That would add up to a very different level of regional cooperation and have a big impact on Trump’s trade and immigration agendas.

November: New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections

Five states hold their elections for governor off of the typical, even-year schedule. Virginia and New Jersey’s are scheduled such that they are always held one year after the presidential election. That — and their proximity to the D.C. and New York media — has brought heightened attention to the contests, making them the first referendum on new administrations in recent years.

December: Trump tax cuts and Biden ACA subsidies expire

The 2017 tax law passed by Republicans and signed by Trump made several measures permanent — including slashing the corporate income tax from 35% to 21%. But most measures affecting individuals and families, including rates for individuals and the expansion of the child tax credit, were temporary and are set to expire at the end of 2025. Also scheduled to expire are the significantly expanded health care subsidies Democrats passed in 2022 that made Obamacare plans significantly more affordable for working and middle class Americans. Extending or expanding the tax measures will be a top priority for the GOP Congress but the ACA subsidies are likely to expire. 

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